Broadening the horizon in land use change modelling: Normative scenarios for nature positive futures in Switzerland


Serval ID
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Broadening the horizon in land use change modelling: Normative scenarios for nature positive futures in Switzerland
Global Environmental Change
Black B., Adde A., Farinotti D., Guisan A., Külling N., Kurmann N., Martin C., Mayer P., Rabe S-E., Streit J., Zekollari H., Grêt-Regamey A.
Publication state
In Press
Simulation-based research on the future of social-ecological systems often focuses on exploratory scenarios that extrapolate current trends to identify potential changes in the state of system components. While such scenarios are useful for highlighting the consequences of continued anthropogenic environmental degradation, they provide little guidance for averting the undesirable futures they predict. In contrast, normative scenarios, which explicitly focus on defining positive outcomes for both nature and society, have the potential not only to provide solution-oriented results for decision-makers, but also to mobilise public support through the use of inclusive, participatory processes. Several frameworks have been developed to guide the co-creation of normative scenarios for socio-ecological systems, but examples of operationalising the qualitative narratives produced using these frameworks into inputs for quantitative simulation modelling are still limited. To contribute to this research gap, this paper presents an example of how aspects of normative scenarios can be realised within a model of land use and land cover change. This is achieved through a combination of data-driven approaches to encapsulate scenario-specific differences in local and global scale phenomena and iterative expert elicitation to quantify descriptive trends from narratives. This approach is demonstrated with a case study simulating five scenarios of landscape change (three normative and two exploratory) in Switzerland between 2020 and 2060. The results of this case study are evaluated in terms of their consistency with the outcomes expressed in the scenario narratives. However, this research also demonstrates the importance of sharing simulation results with stakeholders, not only to identify improvements in the modelling process, but also to encourage broader reflection on the desirability and plausibility of future scenarios.
Scenario modelling, Land use change, Cellular Automata, Normative scenarios
Create date
05/06/2024 18:48
Last modification date
06/06/2024 6:59
Usage data