Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation.
Details
Download: e19571-download.pdf (3152.83 [Ko])
State: Public
Version: Final published version
State: Public
Version: Final published version
Serval ID
serval:BIB_6FACFC223249
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation.
Journal
eLife
ISSN
2050-084X (Electronic)
ISSN-L
2050-084X
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2016
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
5
Pages
e19571
Language
english
Abstract
Global disease suitability models are essential tools to inform surveillance systems and enable early detection. We present the first global suitability model of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained at global scale. Best predictions are obtained using spatial predictor variables describing host distributions, rather than land use or eco-climatic spatial predictor variables, with a strong association with domestic duck and extensively raised chicken densities. Our results also support a more systematic use of spatial cross-validation in large-scale disease suitability modelling compared to standard random cross-validation that can lead to unreliable measure of extrapolation accuracy. A global suitability model of the H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, a group of viruses that recently spread extensively in Asia and the US, shows in comparison a lower spatial extrapolation capacity than the HPAI H5N1 models, with a stronger association with intensively raised chicken densities and anthropogenic factors.
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
16/03/2017 9:17
Last modification date
16/09/2019 6:26