Estimating lifetîme and 10-year risk of lung cancer

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Version: After imprimatur
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Serval ID
serval:BIB_5BD02D467BEE
Type
PhD thesis: a PhD thesis.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Estimating lifetîme and 10-year risk of lung cancer
Author(s)
BRUDER Christina
Director(s)
Chiolero Arnaud
Codirector(s)
Bochud Murielle
Institution details
Université de Lausanne, Faculté de biologie et médecine
Publication state
Accepted
Issued date
2019
Language
english
Abstract
Lung cancer is the commonest cancer worldwide. Mortality and incidence rates are traditionally used to assess cancer burden and as public health indicators. However, these metrics are difficult to interpret at an individual level. Providing the lifetime and 10-year risks of cancer could improve risk communication. Our aim was to estimate current lifetime and 10-year risks of lung cancer by smoking status and changes in these risks between 1995 and 2013 in a Swiss population. We used all lung cancer cases recorded between 1995 and 2013 by two population-based cancer registries in the contiguous cantons of Vaud and Valais, in Western Switzerland. We estimated sex-specific lifetime risk and 10-year risk of lung cancer using the current probability method, accounting for competing risk of death. Estimates were also provided by smoking status. Between 1995 and 2013, 9623 cases of lung cancer were recorded. During this period, the lifetime risk decreased in men from 7.1% to 6.7% and increased in women from 2.5% to 4.1%. In both sexes, the 10-year risk of lung cancer increased with age until the age of 60–70 and decreased thereafter. Difference in the cumulative risk between current, former, and never smokers were very large and reported in user-friendly charts to ease risk communication. These lifetime and 10-year risk estimates could be used systematically as public health indicators. Regularly updating risk estimations are necessary for conditions like lung cancer whose incidence has changed substantially.
Create date
02/04/2019 11:36
Last modification date
20/08/2019 14:14
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