Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere
Details
Serval ID
serval:BIB_5B98C3C55E45
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere
Journal
Climate Dynamics
ISSN
0930-7575
1432-0894
1432-0894
Publication state
Published
Issued date
04/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
58
Number
7-8
Pages
2109-2130
Language
english
Abstract
The predictability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and its underlying dynamics are investigated in five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model database. Special attention is devoted to the connection between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and lower-stratosphere wave activity (LSWA). We find that in winter (December to February) dynamical forecasts initialised on the first of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on October anomalies. Moreover, the coupling of the SPV with mid-latitude LSWA (i.e., meridional eddy heat flux) is generally well reproduced by the forecast systems, allowing for the identification of a robust link between the predictability of wave activity above the tropopause and the SPV skill. Our results highlight the importance of November-to-February LSWA, in particular in the Eurasian sector, for forecasts of the winter stratosphere. Finally, the role of potential sources of seasonal stratospheric predictability is considered: we find that the C3S multi-model overestimates the stratospheric response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and underestimates the influence of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO).
Keywords
Seasonal predictions, Stratosphere, Lower-stratosphere wave activity, Meridional eddy heat flux, Sudden stratospheric warmings
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Funding(s)
Swiss National Science Foundation / PP00P2_170523
Create date
07/10/2022 17:27
Last modification date
11/01/2023 18:06