Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts

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Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_58BAE56B94B5
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts
Journal
Geoscientific Model Development
Author(s)
Hitchcock Peter, Butler Amy, Charlton-Perez Andrew, Garfinkel Chaim I., Stockdale Tim, Anstey James, Mitchell Dann, Domeisen Daniela I. V., Wu Tongwen, Lu Yixiong, Mastrangelo Daniele, Malguzzi Piero, Lin Hai, Muncaster Ryan, Merryfield Bill, Sigmond Michael, Xiang Baoqiang, Jia Liwei, Hyun Yu-Kyung, Oh Jiyoung, Specq Damien, Simpson Isla R., Richter Jadwiga H., Barton Cory, Knight Jeff, Lim Eun-Pa, Hendon Harry
ISSN
1991-9603
Publication state
Published
Issued date
04/07/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
15
Number
13
Pages
5073-5092
Language
english
Abstract
Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research.
We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex disturbances for surface predictability in subseasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models. Fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts.
Keywords
Pharmacology (medical)
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Funding(s)
Swiss National Science Foundation / PP00P2_170523
Swiss National Science Foundation / PP00P2_198896
Create date
05/09/2022 8:51
Last modification date
08/10/2022 6:10
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