Managerial Decision Making and Lead Times: The Impact of Cognitive Illusions

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_5085E530E2D5
Type
A part of a book
Publication sub-type
Chapter: chapter ou part
Collection
Publications
Title
Managerial Decision Making and Lead Times: The Impact of Cognitive Illusions
Title of the book
Rapid Modelling for Increasing Competitiveness
Author(s)
de Treville S., Hoffrage U., Petty J. S.
Publisher
London, UK: Springer
ISBN
978-1-84882-747-9
978-1-84882-748-6
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2009
Editor
Reiner G.
Chapter
1
Pages
3-14
Language
english
Abstract
In this paper, we consider the impact of cognitive illusions on decision making in the operations management field, in areas ranging from product and process development to project management. Psychologists have studied the effects of overconfidence, the planning fallacy, illusions of control, anchoring, confirmation bias, hindsight bias, and associative memory illusions on individual judgment, thinking, and memory in many experiments, but little research has focused on operations management implications of these biases and illusions. Drawing on these psychological findings we discuss several of these cognitive illusions and their impact on operations managers, plant workers, technicians and engineers alike in a variety of operational settings. As in other contexts, these cognitive illusions are quite robust in operations management, but fortunately the impact of selected illusions can be substantially reduced through debiasing techniques. The examples discussed in this paper highlight the need for more operations-management-based research on the impact of cognitive illusions on decision making.
Keywords
Task
Web of science
Create date
23/06/2010 11:50
Last modification date
06/11/2018 7:14
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