European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2011.

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State: Public
Version: author
Serval ID
serval:BIB_4FBB5BFF6C22
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2011.
Journal
Annals of Oncology
Author(s)
Malvezzi Matteo, Arfé Andrea, Bertuccio Paola, Levi Fabio, La Vecchia Carlo, Negri Eva
ISSN
1569-8041 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0923-7534
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2011
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
22
Number
4
Pages
947-956
Language
english
Abstract
Background: Mortality figures become available after some years.Materials and methods: Using the World Health Organization mortality and population data, we estimated numbers of deaths in 2011 from all cancers and selected sites for the European Union (EU) and six major countries, by fitting a joinpoint model to 5-year age-specific numbers of deaths. Age-standardized rates were computed using EUROSTAT population estimates.Results: The predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU in 2011 was 1 281 436, with standardized rates of 143/100 000 men and 85/100 000 women. Poland had the highest rates, with smaller falls over recent periods. Declines in mortality for major sites including stomach, colorectum, breast, uterus, prostate and leukemias, plus male lung cancer, will continue until 2011, and a trend reversal or a leveling off is predicted where upward trends were previously observed. Female lung cancer rates are increasing in all major EU countries except the UK, where it is the first cause of cancer death, as now in Poland. The increasing pancreatic cancer trends in women observed up to 2004 have likely leveled off.Conclusions: Despite falls in rates, absolute numbers of cancer deaths are stable in Europe. The gap between Western and former nonmarket economy countries will likely persist.
Keywords
Data Interpretation, Statistical , Europe/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Neoplasms/mortality* , World Health Organization
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
15/04/2011 15:49
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:05
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