Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

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Serval ID
serval:BIB_3E28E809C0FB
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires
Journal
Geoinformatica
Author(s)
Vega-Orozco C., Tonini M., Conedera M., Kanevski M.
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2012
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
16
Pages
653-673
Language
english
Notes
Vega-Orozco2012
Abstract
Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process
where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence
in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time
pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to
assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive
measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution
of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots
in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics
permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS)
for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology
uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting
local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period
of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is
evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study
is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino
(Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced
single events including the location of the ignition points and additional
information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering
important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes
(lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest
fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region
where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local
hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding
the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters
detected in the northern mountainous area.
Open Access
Yes
Create date
25/11/2013 18:18
Last modification date
25/09/2019 7:09
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