Time-evolution of age-dependent mortality patterns in mathematical model of heterogeneous human population

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_37606231269D
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Time-evolution of age-dependent mortality patterns in mathematical model of heterogeneous human population
Journal
Experimental Gerontology
Author(s)
Avraam D., Jones D., Vasiev B.
Working group(s)
Arnold (-Gaille) S.
ISSN
0531-5565 (Print)
1873-6815 (Online)
Publication state
Published
Issued date
12/2014
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
60
Pages
18-30
Language
english
Abstract
The widely-known Gompertz law of mortality states the exponential increase of mortality with age in human populations. Such an exponential increase is observed at the adulthood span, roughly after the reproductive period, while mortality data at young and extremely old ages deviate from it. The heterogeneity of human populations, i.e. the existence of subpopulations with different mortality dynamics, is a useful consideration that can explain age-dependent mortality patterns across the whole life-course. A simple mathematical model combining the heterogeneity of populations with an assumption that the mortality in each subpopulation grows exponentially with age has been proven to be capable of reproducing the entire mortality pattern in a human population including the observed peculiarities at early- and late-life intervals. In this work we fit this model to actual (Swedish) mortality data for consecutive periods and consequently describe the evolution of mortality dynamics in terms of the evolution of the model parameters over time. We have found that the evolution of the model parameters validates the applicability of the compensation law of mortality to each subpopulation separately. Furthermore, our study has indicated that the population structure changes so that the population tends to become more homogeneous over time. Finally, our analysis of the decrease of the overall mortality in a population over time has shown that this decrease is mainly due to a change in the population structure and to a lesser extent to a reduction of mortality in each of the subpopulations, the latter being represented by an alteration of the parameters that outline the exponential dynamics.
Keywords
Gompertz law, Mortality dynamics, Mathematical model, Model fitting, Compensation law of mortality, Homogenization
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Create date
11/09/2014 11:53
Last modification date
20/08/2019 14:25
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