Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_363EE7A4DD1E
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios
Journal
Diversity and Distribution
Author(s)
Regos A., D'Amen M., Titeux N., Herrando S., Guisan A., Brotons L.
ISSN
1472-4642
ISSN-L
1366-9516
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2016
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
22
Number
1
Pages
83-96
Language
english
Abstract
AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios.
LocationCatalonia, Spain.
MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems.
ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network.
Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.
Keywords
biodiversity management, bird conservation, hierarchical approach, land abandonment, land cover change, MEDFIRE model, multiscale modelling, species distribution models, vegetation dynamics
Web of science
Create date
08/02/2016 15:25
Last modification date
20/08/2019 14:24
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