Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_28EB35CD1BE4
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach
Journal
Biological Invasions
Author(s)
Vicente J., Randin C.F., Gonçalves J., Metzger M.J., Lomba A., Honrado J., Guisan A.
ISSN
1387-3547
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2011
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
13
Number
5
Pages
1209-1227
Language
english
Abstract
Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions
Keywords
Alien invaders, Climate change, Combined predictive modelling, Land-use change, Rare species, Species distribution models
Web of science
Create date
10/07/2010 22:53
Last modification date
20/08/2019 14:08
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