High-frequency financial data modeling using Hawkes processes

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Version: Final published version
Serval ID
serval:BIB_1BC9BF93E651
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
High-frequency financial data modeling using Hawkes processes
Journal
Journal of Banking and Finance
Author(s)
Chavez-Demoulin V., McGill J. A.
ISSN
0378-4266
Publication state
Published
Issued date
12/2012
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
36
Number
12
Pages
3415-3426
Language
english
Abstract
Intraday Value-at-Risk (VaR) is one of the risk measures used by market participants involved in high-frequency trading. High-frequency log-returns feature important kurtosis (fat tails) and volatility clustering (extreme log-returns appear in clusters) that VaR models should take into account. We propose a marked point process model for the excesses of the time series over a high threshold that combines Hawkes processes for the exceedances with a generalized Pareto distribution model for the marks (exceedance sizes). The conditional approach features intraday clustering of extremes and is used to calculate instantaneous conditional VaR. The models are backtested on real data and compared to a competitor approach that proposes a nonparametric extension of the classical peaks-over-threshold method. Maximum likelihood estimation is computationally intensive; we use a differential evolution genetic algorithm to find adequate starting values for the optimization process.
Keywords
Hawkes process, High-frequency data, Peaks-over-threshold, Self-exciting process, Value-at-risk
Create date
04/11/2011 8:38
Last modification date
20/08/2019 12:52
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