The Effect of Macroeconomic News on Beliefs and Preferences: Evidence from the Options Market

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_1974C9ABF145
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
The Effect of Macroeconomic News on Beliefs and Preferences: Evidence from the Options Market
Journal
Journal of Monetary Economics, forthcoming
Author(s)
Beber A., Brandt M.
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2007
Abstract
We examine the effect of regularly scheduled macroeconomic announcements on the beliefs and preferences of participants in the U.S. Treasury market by comparing the option-implied state-price densities (SPDs) of bond prices shortly before and after the announcements. We find that the announcements reduce the uncertainty implicit in the second moment of the SPD regardless of the content of the news. The changes in the higher-order moments, in contrast, depend on whether the news is good or bad for economic prospects. We explore three alternative explanations for our empirical findings: relative mispricing, changes in beliefs, and changes in preferences. We find that our results are consistent with time-varying risk aversion.
Keywords
Z3
Create date
19/11/2007 10:41
Last modification date
20/08/2019 13:50
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