Age-period-cohort analysis of oral cancer mortality in Europe: the end of an epidemic?

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State: Public
Version: author
Serval ID
serval:BIB_17A4B2482DAC
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Age-period-cohort analysis of oral cancer mortality in Europe: the end of an epidemic?
Journal
Oral Oncology
Author(s)
Bonifazi Martina, Malvezzi Matteo, Bertuccio Paola, Edefonti Valeria, Garavello Werner, Levi Fabio, La Vecchia Carlo, Negri Eva
ISSN
1368-8375 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
1368-8375
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2011
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
47
Number
5
Pages
400-407
Language
english
Abstract
Over the last decade, mortality from oral and pharyngeal cancer has been declining in most European countries, but it had been increasing substantially in Hungary, Slovakia and a few other countries of central Europe, reaching rates comparable to those of lung cancer in several western European countries in males. To update trends in oral cancer mortality and further analyse the recent epidemic in central Europe, official death certifications for oral and pharyngeal cancer for 37 European countries were derived over the period 1970-2007, and an age-period-cohort model was fitted for selected countries. Male oral cancer mortality continued to decline in most European countries, including the Russian Federation, and, more importantly, it also started to decline in some of the countries with the highest male rates, i.e. Hungary and Slovakia; persisting rises were, however, observed in Belarus, Bulgaria and Romania. Oral cancer mortality rates for women were lower than in men and showed no appreciable trend over recent periods in the EU overall. Estimates from the age-period-cohort analysis for most selected countries showed a fall in effects for the cohorts born after the 1950s. For the period effect displayed a rise for the earlier periods, an inversion in the 1990s and a continuous fall up to the last studied period. Only some former non-market economy countries, like Romania, Ukraine and Lithuania, had rising cohort effect trends up to most recent generations. The major finding of this updated analysis of oral cancer mortality is the leveling of the epidemic for men in most European countries, including Hungary and other central European countries, where mortality from this cancer was exceedingly high. These trends essentially reflect the changes in alcohol and tobacco consumption in various populations.
Keywords
Adult , Age Distribution , Alcoholism/complications , Alcoholism/mortality* , Cohort Studies , Epidemics* , Europe/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Mouth Neoplasms/epidemiology , Mouth Neoplasms/mortality* , Pharyngeal Neoplasms/epidemiology , Pharyngeal Neoplasms/mortality* , Sex Factors , Smoking/adverse effects , Smoking/mortality*
Pubmed
Web of science
Create date
04/05/2011 8:48
Last modification date
16/03/2020 7:08
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