Bayesian model selection in hydrogeophysics: Application to conceptual subsurface models of the South Oyster Bacterial Transport Site, Virginia, USA

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_14F5DE1B59A9
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Publication sub-type
Minutes: analyse of a published work.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Bayesian model selection in hydrogeophysics: Application to conceptual subsurface models of the South Oyster Bacterial Transport Site, Virginia, USA
Journal
Advances in Water Resources
Author(s)
Brunetti C., Linde N., Vrugt J.A.
ISSN
0309-1708
Publication state
Published
Issued date
04/2017
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
102
Pages
127-141
Language
english
Abstract
Geophysical data can help to discriminate among multiple competing subsurface hypotheses (conceptual models). Here, we explore the merits of Bayesian model selection in hydrogeophysics using crosshole ground-penetrating radar data from the South Oyster Bacterial Transport Site in Virginia, USA. Implementation of Bayesian model selection requires computation of the marginal likelihood of the measured data, or evidence, for each conceptual model being used. In this paper, we compare three different evidence estimators, including (1) the brute force Monte Carlo method, (2) the Laplace-Metropolis method, and (3) the numerical integration method proposed by Volpi et al. (2016). The three types of subsurface models that we consider differ in their treatment of the porosity distribution and use (a) horizontal layering with fixed layer thicknesses, (b) vertical layering with fixed layer thicknesses and (c) a multi-Gaussian field. Our results demonstrate that all three estimators provide equivalent results in low parameter dimensions, yet in higher dimensions the brute force Monte Carlo method is inefficient. The isotropic multi-Gaussian model is most supported by the travel time data with Bayes factors that are larger than 10^100 compared to conceptual models that assume horizontal or vertical layering of the porosity field.
Keywords
Water Science and Technology
Web of science
Publisher's website
Create date
20/10/2017 14:53
Last modification date
20/08/2019 13:43
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