Impact of cross-border-associated cases on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland during summer 2020 and 2021.

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Serval ID
serval:BIB_007BB4079251
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Impact of cross-border-associated cases on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland during summer 2020 and 2021.
Journal
Epidemics
Author(s)
Reichmuth M.L., Hodcroft E.B., Riou J., Neher R.A., Hens N., Althaus C.L.
ISSN
1878-0067 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
1878-0067
Publication state
Published
Issued date
12/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
41
Pages
100654
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: ppublish
Abstract
During the summers of 2020 and 2021, the number of confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in Switzerland remained at relatively low levels, but grew steadily over time. It remains unclear to what extent epidemic growth during these periods was a result of the relaxation of local control measures or increased traveling and subsequent importation of cases. A better understanding of the role of cross-border-associated cases (imports) on the local epidemic dynamics will help to inform future surveillance strategies. We analyzed routine surveillance data of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland from 1 June to 30 September 2020 and 2021. We used a stochastic branching process model that accounts for superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 to simulate epidemic trajectories in absence and in presence of imports during summer 2020 and 2021. The Swiss Federal Office of Public Health reported 22,919 and 145,840 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 from 1 June to 30 September 2020 and 2021, respectively. Among cases with known place of exposure, 27% (3,276 of 12,088) and 25% (1,110 of 4,368) reported an exposure abroad in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Without considering the impact of imported cases, the steady growth of confirmed cases during summer periods would be consistent with a value of R <sub>e</sub> that is significantly above the critical threshold of 1. In contrast, we estimated R <sub>e</sub> at 0.84 (95% credible interval, CrI: 0.78-0.90) in 2020 and 0.82 (95% CrI: 0.74-0.90) in 2021 when imported cases were taken into account, indicating that the local R <sub>e</sub> was below the critical threshold of 1 during summer. In Switzerland, cross-border-associated SARS-CoV-2 cases had a considerable impact on the local transmission dynamics and can explain the steady growth of the epidemic during the summers of 2020 and 2021.
Keywords
Humans, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19/epidemiology, Epidemics, Travel, Public Health, Switzerland/epidemiology, Cross-border-associated cases, Import, Summer
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
05/12/2022 15:07
Last modification date
25/01/2024 7:30
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